Social Security recipients will learn the size of next year’s raise on Wednesday, Oct. 14, and forecasters expect the biggest increase in three years.
The Social Security Administration announces the cost-of-living adjustment, or COLA, after the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases September inflation data at 8:30 a.m. Eastern that morning. The new amount takes effect Jan. 1, 2027.
What Forecasters Expect
Most estimates land between 3.5% and 3.6%:
- The Senior Citizens League: 3.5%
- AARP: 3.6%
- Kiplinger: 3.6%
- FEDweek: 3.5%
That would be up from 2.8% for 2026 and 2.5% for 2025, according to the Senior Citizens League. Kiplinger estimates a 3.5% raise would lift the average retired worker’s monthly benefit from about $2,088 to roughly $2,161.
How the COLA Is Calculated
The raise is based on a specific inflation measure called the CPI-W, which tracks prices paid by urban wage earners and clerical workers. The government compares the average for July, August and September with the same three months a year earlier.
Two of those months are already in: the CPI-W was up 3.4% from a year earlier in July and 3.5% in August. September is the last piece, and energy prices could tip it. The national average for gasoline was $4.35 a gallon in early October, according to GasBuddy data cited by an economics newsletter, well above where it was at the end of February.
“Short-term shocks to the economy that push inflation way up or down” are the main risk to forecasts, Shannon Benton, executive director of the Senior Citizens League, said in September.
Watch Your Medicare Premium
A bigger check doesn’t always mean more money in your pocket. Medicare Part B premiums are usually deducted from Social Security payments. The standard Part B premium is $202.90 a month in 2026, and Kiplinger reports it is projected to rise to about $209.50 in 2027.
What to Do Next
- Watch for your personalized notice from the SSA showing your exact 2027 payment, and check it against your own budget.
- If you’re in Medicare, review your plan during open enrollment, which runs Oct. 15 to Dec. 7.
- Wait for the official number before locking in 2027 plans. Forecasts can be off by a few tenths of a point.
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