The El Niño warming the Pacific Ocean is on track to become one of the strongest ever measured, and federal forecasters now say there is a good chance it will set a record.
In its monthly update on Thursday, Oct. 8, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center said El Niño strengthened again in September and kept its El Niño Advisory in place. Forecasters now put the odds of a “strong-to-very strong” El Niño lasting through January–March 2027 at more than 83%.
El Niño is the warm phase of a natural cycle in the tropical Pacific. When the ocean along the equator heats up, it changes where storms form and nudges the jet stream, the river of air that steers weather across North America. That is why a warming patch of ocean thousands of miles away can shape a winter in Texas or Minnesota.
How Strong Is “Historic”?
The Climate Prediction Center tracks El Niño with an index of how much warmer the central Pacific is than the tropics as a whole. A reading of +2.5°C (+4.5°F) or higher would beat every El Niño in its records, which go back to 1950. The agency’s odds of reaching that mark:
- September–November: 54%
- October–December: 83%
- November–January: 70%
The ocean numbers are already eye-catching. The key Niño-3.4 region was +2.1°C (+3.8°F) above normal in September, and the waters off South America were +3.9°C (+7°F) above normal. Parts of the eastern equatorial Pacific topped +4°C (+7.2°F), and water below the surface was even warmer. The atmosphere is responding too, with more rain and storms over the central and eastern Pacific and drier weather over Indonesia.
The World Meteorological Organization, which released its own assessment the same day based on 13 climate centers, also sees warming peaking around December and gives near-100% odds that El Niño lasts through February. Its numbers use a different baseline, so they are not directly comparable with NOAA’s. By the WMO’s own measure, the Niño-3.4 region could average about +3.7°C (+6.7°F) above normal from October through December. The previous high on that scale was +2.6°C (+4.7°F), set during the strong El Niño of late 2015 and early 2016.
The WMO’s outlook for the rest of this year also leans wetter than normal for parts of North America south of about 45°N latitude, roughly the line running through Minneapolis and Portland, Oregon, and drier than normal for southern Central America and parts of the Caribbean.
Strong El Niños have left marks for a long time: one study we covered last month found that Galápagos corals suggest the climate pattern is stronger now than at any point in 1,000 years.
What It Could Mean for Your Winter
El Niño is not a forecast for any single storm, but it tilts the odds. NOAA describes the typical pattern for the U.S. like this:
- Southern tier: More storms and wetter, cooler weather. In the Southeast and parts of the southern Plains, that can mean more snow, sleet or freezing rain when it gets cold enough.
- Northern tier: From the Pacific Northwest to the Midwest, winters tend to be warmer and drier. A climate.gov analysis found strong El Niño winters bring less snow on average, including in the Northeast.
- Florida: A higher risk of winter severe thunderstorms, according to Columbia University climate scientist Michael Tippett. The rest of the Gulf Coast tends to be less active than normal.
The center’s earlier winter outlook leaned toward above-average temperatures across the northern U.S. and wetter-than-normal conditions in Southern California, the southern tier and the East Coast, with the most confidence in the Southeast.
What’s Next
NOAA’s National Weather Service will release its official U.S. Winter Outlook for December through February on Thursday, Oct. 15, at 11 a.m. ET, including what it expects from “a very strong El Niño.” The next monthly El Niño update is due Nov. 12.
The Fine Print
These are probabilities, not guarantees. The Climate Prediction Center itself says a strong event makes typical El Niño impacts more likely but not certain, and local conditions still come down to the day-to-day weather. For planning around a specific place, the regional outlooks from NOAA and your local National Weather Service office are the best guide.
More on Contoh
- Galápagos Corals Suggest El Niño Is Stronger Now Than at Any Time in 1,000 Years
- A Forgotten 30-Year Forest Experiment Found Thinned Stands Stored as Much Carbon as Untouched Ones
Sources
- NOAA Climate Prediction Center: ENSO Diagnostic Discussion, Oct. 8, 2026
- The Watchers: NOAA gives El Niño an 83% chance of reaching historic strength in late 2026
- NOAA: NOAA to issue 2026-2027 U.S. Winter Outlook October 15
- KRDO (CNN): El Niño will upend winter weather in the US. Here’s who will feel it the most