Americans spent more at stores and restaurants in September than economists expected. Retail sales rose 0.8% from August to $745.0 billion, according to the Commerce Department’s Census Bureau, well above the 0.3% gain forecasters had penciled in.
But look one layer down and the picture is less cheerful. Most of the extra money went into gas tanks, not shopping bags. And on the same day, the National Retail Federation (NRF) predicted that holiday sales will top $1 trillion for the first time, with nearly half of that growth coming from higher prices rather than people buying more.
Here is what the numbers say, what they leave out and what they could mean for your holiday budget or your small business.
The Headline Numbers
- Total retail and food services sales: up 0.8% in September, after a gain in August that was revised up to 1.3%.
- Compared with a year earlier: up 6.3%, the fastest annual pace since May, according to Haver Analytics.
- Excluding gas stations: up just 0.2%.
- The “control group”: up 0.1%. More on why this one matters below.
- Gas stations: up 6.4% in a single month and 28.1% from a year earlier.
Haver Analytics calculated that gas stations accounted for 71.4% of September’s $5.7 billion increase in total sales. In other words, roughly $4 of every $5 in added spending went to fuel.
That lines up with what drivers have been seeing. AAA put the national average for regular gas at $4.33 a gallon on Oct. 15, according to the Associated Press, up from under $3 before renewed fighting in the Middle East pushed oil prices higher.
Where the Rest of the Money Went
Outside the gas pump, September was a mixed month. Here is how major store categories changed from August, according to Census data compiled by Haver Analytics:
Up
- Department stores: +1.6%
- Furniture and home furnishings: +1.3%
- Restaurants and bars: +1.1%, the eighth monthly gain in a row
- Health and personal care stores: +0.7%
- Electronics and appliance stores: +0.6%
- Grocery and beverage stores: +0.4%
- Online retailers: +0.3%
Flat or Down
- Clothing and accessories: essentially unchanged
- General merchandise stores: -0.1%
- Sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores: -0.5%
- Building materials and garden: -0.6%
- Miscellaneous stores: -3.0%
Auto dealers and parts stores rose 0.2%, even though the number of new cars and light trucks sold fell 3.8% from August, suggesting that higher prices per vehicle did some of the work there too.
How to Read a Retail Sales Report Without Getting Fooled
The monthly retail report is one of the most watched pieces of economic data in the country. It is also easy to misread. Three things are worth knowing.
1. It Is Not Adjusted for Inflation
The Census Bureau adjusts the numbers for seasons, holidays and the number of trading days in a month, but “not for price changes.” If prices rise 1% and people buy exactly the same stuff, sales go up 1%. That is a big deal right now. The Labor Department reported this week that consumer prices rose 0.6% in September alone and 3.7% over the past year, and gasoline prices jumped 9.1% in a single month. As we covered in our look at September’s inflation report, energy did much of the damage.
2. The “Control Group” Is What Economists Watch
The control group strips out gas stations, auto dealers, building materials stores and restaurants, the most volatile categories. In September it rose only 0.1%.
Put that next to inflation and you get a rough but telling comparison. Core consumer prices, which exclude food and energy, rose 0.3% in September. If core spending rose 0.1% while core prices rose 0.3%, Americans likely bought slightly less, in real terms, in the categories that matter most to retailers. That is our back-of-the-envelope reading, not an official figure, but it explains why many analysts did not celebrate the headline.
3. It Is an Early Estimate
This is the “advance” estimate, and it comes with a margin of error: the Census Bureau puts the monthly change at 0.8%, plus or minus 0.4 percentage points. Revisions are common. August was first reported as a 1.1% gain and has since been revised to 1.3%. The report also misses big parts of consumer spending, including travel, hotels and most services.
What Experts Are Saying
Natalie Kotlyar, who leads the retail and consumer products practice at the accounting firm BDO, told the AP that September shows consumers are still spending, but “I wouldn’t read it as broad strength.” She said part of the increase reflects higher prices rather than stronger demand, and that shoppers are leaning on savings and promotions to stretch their budgets. She warned that strong sales can’t last indefinitely when wages aren’t keeping up with prices.
The job market adds to the caution. Employers added a disappointing 29,000 jobs in the latest monthly report and the unemployment rate ticked up, the AP noted, though hiring has held up through a string of shocks this year. Consumer mood has also been sour: consumer sentiment slid toward a record low earlier this month.
The Holiday Forecast: $1 Trillion, With an Asterisk
On Oct. 15 the NRF, the largest retail trade group, forecast that sales in November and December will rise 4.2% from last year to $1.013 trillion. That would be faster growth than in 2025, when holiday sales rose 3.1% to $972 billion.
The asterisk is prices. According to Retail TouchPoints’ account of the NRF’s press call, nearly half of that 4.2% growth is expected to come from real increases in spending and the rest from inflation. The NRF also expects core goods prices to rise faster this year than last, with higher diesel costs raising shipping bills and memory-chip prices lifting the cost of electronics.
NRF Chief Economist Mark Mathews called consumers “the bright spot in the economy” but said “inflation, rising gas prices and pressure on household spending will affect consumers differently across income groups.” Retail TouchPoints reported that the NRF sees spending as K-shaped, with wealthier households doing much of the heavy lifting. In some sectors, the top 10% of spenders account for as much as 70% of sales.
Two other details stand out:
- Seasonal hiring is cautious. The NRF expects retailers to add 325,000 to 375,000 seasonal workers, compared with an estimated 356,000 last year. It cited higher gas prices, persistent inflation, higher interest rates and elevated consumer debt.
- The forecast leaves out gas. The NRF’s holiday numbers exclude gas stations, car dealers and restaurants, so September’s fuel-driven jump does not flatter them. Separately, Adobe has forecast $275.1 billion in U.S. holiday online sales, according to Retail TouchPoints.
What This Means for You
If You Are Shopping This Season
- Expect sticker prices on some items to be higher than last year, especially electronics, where memory-chip costs are rising. If a laptop or phone is on your list, it may pay to track prices now rather than wait.
- Watch your total, not just the deals. Higher gas and grocery bills shrink what is left for gifts. Setting a firm holiday number before Black Friday makes it easier to say no to “limited time” offers.
- Be wary of borrowing to cover gifts. Half of holiday shoppers surveyed earlier this month said they expect to borrow, and with interest rates high, a balance carried into January can cost far more than the discount you got.
If You Run a Small Shop
- Do not mistake higher revenue for higher demand. Compare unit sales, not just dollar sales, with last year so price increases do not hide a slowdown.
- Keep inventory flexible. BDO’s Kotlyar advised retailers to protect margins and stay nimble on inventory heading into November and December.
- Plan for a split customer base. If the NRF is right that higher-income households are carrying spending, it may make sense to offer both value bundles and premium options rather than betting on one.
The Bottom Line
September’s retail report looks strong at first glance, but much of the gain is the cost of filling up the car. Strip out the noise and core spending barely moved while prices kept climbing. The holiday season is still expected to be big in dollar terms, but a sizable share of that growth will reflect higher prices, and retailers are hiring like they know it.
The next retail sales report, covering October, will offer the first read on how shoppers are entering the holiday season.
More on Contoh
- Inflation Jumps to 3.7% as Gas Prices Soar. What September’s Numbers Mean for Your Money
- Holiday Shoppers Plan to Spend, but Half Expect to Borrow to Do It
- Prime Big Deal Days Drove $9.86 Billion in Online Sales, With Shoppers Stocking Up on Basics
Sources
- U.S. Census Bureau: Advance Monthly Retail Sales, September 2026
- Haver Analytics: U.S. Retail Sales Rise in September, Above Forecasts
- ABC News/AP: Retail sales up a better-than-expected 0.8% in September as shoppers remain resilient
- National Retail Federation: NRF forecasts 2026 holiday sales growth as consumers remain resilient
- Retail TouchPoints: Will 2026 Holiday Sales Reach $1 Trillion? NRF Says Yes