Americans aren’t ready to cancel the holidays, but many are planning to put them on credit. A new survey from the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) finds most shoppers intend to spend at least as much as last year, even as about half expect to borrow to do it.
The big numbers
ICSC projects holiday retail sales will grow 4.3% to 4.9% this season, to about $1.7 trillion. Its survey of 1,003 U.S. adults, conducted online Sept. 21–23, found:
- 88% plan to buy holiday gifts.
- 78% intend to spend the same or more than last year.
- 49% worry about being able to afford gifts.
- 50% say household debt will affect how much they spend.
- 49% expect to borrow money for holiday purchases.
- 23% expect to still be paying off this year’s holiday shopping in 2027.
ICSC also noted that the top 10% of spenders will account for an outsized share of sales, a reminder that a strong headline number can hide very different situations from household to household.
Shoppers are hunting for value
The survey points to a season of bargain-hunting rather than cutting back:
- 58% plan to try new brands.
- 27% say they’ll compare prices more than usual.
- 61% plan to use AI tools while shopping, most commonly to compare prices (29%).
That last figure is striking. Chatbots and AI shopping assistants have gone from novelty to a mainstream deal-finding tool in a short time, at least by shoppers’ own account.
Stores still matter
For all the talk of online shopping, 93% of respondents expect to visit physical stores this season. Among Gen Z shoppers, 48% see a trip to the store as a social outing that combines shopping, dining and entertainment.
It lines up with other surveys
A separate PayPal survey released Sept. 30 paints a similar picture. In that poll of 2,005 U.S. adults, conducted by Morning Consult Sept. 2–4, 58% of consumers said they had financial concerns heading into the holidays, yet 64% still planned to spend the same or more than last year.
PayPal’s survey also found 58% plan to start shopping before Thanksgiving, 67% prefer retailers that offer rewards or cash back, and 55% have used or considered buy now, pay later (BNPL). Of those BNPL users, 75% said they may use it for holiday purchases.
Shoppers in that poll said they’ll manage costs by sticking to a budget (36%), comparing prices (32%) and waiting for promotions (31%). Two in five planned to start shopping in October, and 29% said they’re starting earlier than last year. Clothing (52%), toys and games (38%) and beauty and personal care (32%) topped the list of planned gifts.
“Shoppers are starting earlier and taking a more intentional approach, looking for deals, rewards and cash back to make every purchase count,” PayPal said.
What it means for your wallet
If you’re among the half of shoppers planning to borrow, a few basics can keep December from following you into spring:
- Set a total budget first, then divide it by person, before the sales start.
- Know what borrowing costs. Credit card interest adds up quickly on a balance you carry for months, and BNPL plans can trigger late fees if you miss a payment.
- Keep track of BNPL plans in one place. Several small installment plans with different due dates are easy to lose track of.
- Check return policies before you buy. Holiday return windows and restocking fees vary a lot between retailers, and a cheap deal is less of a deal if it can’t go back.
- Use price-comparison tools, but double-check. AI shopping assistants can be handy, but confirm prices and sellers on the retailer’s own site.
For small retailers, the survey’s message is that customers are willing to spend but want to feel they’re getting value, and they’re open to trying new brands. Rewards, clear pricing and a good in-store experience may count for more than usual this year.
The catch
These are surveys of what people plan to do, measured in September. Actual spending often differs once prices, paychecks and the calendar get real. The ICSC sample is relatively small at about 1,000 people, and ICSC is a trade group for the shopping center industry, which has an interest in strong in-store traffic. PayPal, likewise, offers BNPL and rewards products.
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