The big holiday forecasts are in, and they point to a record season. But look closely and a good share of the growth reflects higher prices rather than shoppers buying more.
Bain: a $1 trillion milestone
Consulting firm Bain & Company said on Sept. 3 that it expects U.S. holiday retail sales in November and December to exceed $1 trillion for the first time. Its forecast calls for 4.5% year-over-year growth, up from 3.5% last holiday season.
The catch: Bain attributes more than half of that nominal growth to inflation. In other words, shoppers will be spending more partly because things cost more. Adjusted for prices, the gain in the amount of goods actually changing hands would be considerably smaller.
“While US retailers have reason to rejoice this holiday season as the industry reaches the trillion-dollar milestone for the first time, there are underlying factors that will temper bottom lines,” said Aaron Cheris, a partner and global head of Bain’s retail practice.
Online keeps outpacing stores
Bain expects online and other nonstore sales to grow 9%, compared with 2.5% for in-store sales. Online is expected to drive 60% of overall growth, up from 50% a year earlier.
AI enters the shopping list
Bain’s consumer survey also found that 24% of online shoppers plan to start their holiday shopping on AI platforms, up from 17% in 2025. Sixty percent plan to use retailer and brand websites, up from 51%. About 90% said they plan to spend during major sale events, such as Black Friday, Cyber Monday and October promotions.
Shoppers expect to spend the most on clothing (43%), followed by groceries (37%) and gift cards (36%).
Deloitte: up to 4.8% growth
Deloitte, which measures a longer season from November through January, released its forecast on Sept. 10. It expects holiday retail sales of $1.70 trillion to $1.71 trillion, growth of 4.0% to 4.8%. Last season, sales rose 4.1% to $1.63 trillion, according to Deloitte.
The firm forecasts e-commerce sales of $316.1 billion to $318.9 billion, up 7.5% to 8.4%. That compares with $294 billion in online holiday sales last season, which grew 7.5%. Deloitte points to disposable personal income, which it projects will grow 4.5% to 5.2%, as a key support for spending.
Akrur Barua, an economist at Deloitte Insights, said disposable personal income “remains an important input” to the forecast, and that e-commerce growth is being aided by shoppers’ ongoing use of digital tools for research and price comparison.
Deloitte also flagged value-seeking behavior across income levels, including switching brands and using promotions. Natalie Martini, Deloitte’s U.S. retail and consumer products leader, said consumers still want to make the holidays special but are making “deliberate choices about how they spend.”
Where the money is likely to go
Taken together, the two reports sketch a shopper who is still willing to spend but is doing more homework first. Bain’s finding that about nine in 10 shoppers plan to buy during big sale events suggests that the calendar of promotions will shape when the money moves, not just how much is spent. Deloitte’s emphasis on digital research points the same way: many purchases that end in a store may start on a phone.
Why the two numbers look so different
The forecasts aren’t directly comparable. Bain covers November and December; Deloitte includes January and uses its own definition of retail sales. What they agree on is direction: moderate growth, a bigger role for online shopping and price-conscious consumers.
What it means for small retailers
For independent shops, the forecasts offer a few practical signals:
- Online visibility matters. With most growth expected to come from online channels, an up-to-date website, product listings and business profile can make a difference.
- Discount events start early. Bain’s survey mentions October promotions alongside Black Friday and Cyber Monday.
- Value is front of mind. Both firms describe shoppers who compare prices and switch brands, which favors clear pricing and visible deals.
- Higher sales may not mean higher profits. If inflation is driving a big part of the growth, rising costs may also squeeze margins.