If you’re counting on a holiday job this year, you may have to hunt a little harder.
Seasonal hiring announcements are down 23% from the same point last year, according to data from outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas released Oct. 1 and reported by Marketplace. Meanwhile, more people are looking for this kind of work.
A forecast for the weakest season since 2008
In its 2026 holiday outlook, published Sept. 23, Challenger forecast that retailers will add about 450,000 seasonal jobs in the fourth quarter. That would be below the 461,500 they added in 2025, which was already the lowest total since 2008.
“Prices are still high, tariffs continue to work through supply chains,” said Andy Challenger of Challenger, Gray & Christmas. He said retailers are leaning on their existing staff and on automation rather than big seasonal hiring waves — even though retail sales rose 1.2% in August.
The slowdown isn’t limited to stores. Challenger says transportation and warehousing added 266,500 jobs in the fourth quarter of 2025, down 12% from a year earlier.
Who has announced plans
A few companies have gone public with numbers, according to Challenger:
- Spirit Halloween: 52,000 seasonal associates, the largest in its history
- Michaels: more than 10,000 seasonal team members
- Bass Pro Shops and Cabela’s: about 4,000 hires
Many of the biggest names, including Amazon, Target, Kohl’s and Bath & Body Works, had not announced 2026 targets as of Challenger’s report, continuing a shift toward more flexible staffing.
More seekers, flat postings
Indeed’s Hiring Lab sees the mismatch in its own data. “The number of job seekers looking for these types of jobs have continued to grow, but the job postings, at best, have remained within a range around the previous year,” Cory Stahle of Indeed’s Hiring Lab told Marketplace. Seasonal postings on Indeed looked strong in August, then slipped back to 2025 levels in September.
Why retailers are holding back
Three reasons stand out from the analysts:
- Efficiency and technology. “Retailers are operating more efficiently than they used to, and using more technology,” Morningstar senior equity analyst David Swartz told Marketplace. That lets stores run with fewer permanent and temporary workers.
- Worries about shoppers. With gas prices and inflation on people’s minds, retailers are cautious about how much customers will spend.
- Wait and see. Some chains may simply delay hiring until they get clearer signals about holiday demand.
Halloween is the bright spot
The biggest announcement so far comes from Halloween, not Christmas. Spirit Halloween’s 52,000 seasonal hires — a company record — reflect a holiday that has become a major retail event in its own right. Those jobs are short, though: most Halloween stores open for only a couple of months.
The real test for holiday hiring comes over the next several weeks, when the largest retailers and shipping companies typically reveal their plans. If they keep their numbers quiet, or announce smaller totals than in past years, Challenger’s forecast of the weakest season since 2008 may hold.
Tips if you want a seasonal job
- Apply early. With fewer openings, the first wave of hiring may fill quickly.
- Look beyond the big chains. Specialty stores like Michaels and Spirit Halloween have announced sizable plans, and local shops often hire for the season, too.
- Ask about staying on. About half of Michaels’ seasonal workers move into permanent roles, according to Yahoo Finance’s seasonal hiring roundup.
- Watch for hiring events. Macy’s, for example, is running a hiring event from Sept. 24 through Nov. 20, Yahoo Finance reports.
- Check pay and perks side by side. Employee discounts, early pay access and flexible schedules vary widely.
What it means for small businesses
For small retailers, a quieter seasonal market cuts both ways. If big chains hire less, local shops may find it easier to recruit holiday help. But the same caution about shoppers’ budgets applies to them, so planning staffing around realistic sales expectations makes sense. Cross-training existing employees and offering extra hours to part-timers, the same approach many big chains are taking, can help a small shop cover the rush without overcommitting.
More on Contoh
- The Job Market Barely Grew in September: 29,000 Jobs and 4.2% Unemployment
- Forecasters See a Record Holiday Season, With Inflation Doing Some of the Lifting
- Small Businesses Pulled Back on Hiring in September, Two Reports Show